Brexit vs Covid-19

In present value terms, Covid-19 reduces UK GDP by 2.1%. However, Brexit reduces the present value of GDP by 3.7% under an FTA scenario and 5.7% if there is no deal. In this sense, Brexit is expected to be a substantially bigger economic shock than Covid-19.

We cannot know exactly how Covid-19 and Brexit will affect GDP in the years ahead. Covid-19 may reduce long-run output by more than 1.7%. But the forecasts shown in Figure 2 would have to be drastically wrong to overturn the conclusion that Brexit has a bigger effect on the present value of output than Covid-19… More here.

Some will read that and shout ‘project fear!’ They will shout it until they die even when they are proved wrong over and over again.

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